You want drama? Serie A is serving it up like it’s the final act of a telenovela, and Fortaleza versus Vasco da Gama on October 16 is that episode where everyone inexplicably has amnesia but someone’s about to remember everything at exactly the wrong moment. Fortaleza are staring down the barrel, sitting in 18th—basically one spot from the trapdoor—while Vasco are floating out in 11th, but just nine points separate them in a league where nobody’s safe until that last caipirinha is poured. Think Game of Thrones with a little less beheading and a lot more own goals.

If you’re Fortaleza, the stakes are simple: win or start learning the lyrics to the B side of Brazilian football, because relegation is a cold shower nobody wants. Their recent form is the footballing equivalent of a rollercoaster built by a guy who’s only skimmed the instruction manual. They’re WLWLW over the last five matches, which means they’re consistently inconsistent—like that one friend who swears he’s quit junk food but is always holding a cheeseburger at halftime. Key players? Eros Mancuso popped up with a late goal to snap Juventude, Adam Bareiro found the net in crunch time, and Lucas Sasha has proven he’s got a nose for drama with a crucial winner against Sport Recife. But these guys are only averaging 0.6 goals per game in their last ten, which feels like watching Inception and getting stuck in the slow dream sequence—where’s the big payoff?

Over to Vasco da Gama, whose recent form is less Ferris wheel and more space shuttle launch. They’ve bagged 10 goals in their last five, with three wins, a draw, and a single loss. Rayan is running hot—triple threats all around, goals against Vitoria, Cruzeiro, and Flamengo, like a striker who’s watched too many vintage Ronaldo highlight reels and decided he wants in on the legacy. Mix in Philippe Coutinho rediscovering his inner maestro with a goal against Bahia, and Puma Rodríguez getting on the scoresheet, and Vasco look like the squad with the heavy artillery. They’re averaging 1.5 goals per game in their last ten, so if this is a Marvel movie, they’re the guys showing up with the infinity gauntlet while the other team’s still trying to assemble the Avengers.

Tactically, here’s what’s worth spilling your drink over. Fortaleza, at home, will want to bottle up Vasco’s attack, but with 41 conceded so far, their defense is like that Jurassic Park fence: supposed to keep the danger out, but you just know the T-Rex is coming. Vasco’s got 42 goals for the year, so they don’t mind a little chaos—they’ll press, they’ll probe, and they’ll find joy if Fortaleza's central midfield gets slow-footed. The tactical battle comes down to whether the hosts can keep things tight and hit on the break, hoping one of their unpredictable stars decides to have a Messi-in-the-second-half moment. If not, Vasco will turn this into a track meet, and Fortaleza will be gasping for air by the hour mark.

So what’s at stake? For Fortaleza, it’s survival—pure and simple. Lose, and the wolves are at the door, the relegation zone is calling collect, and the pressure mounts like a Netflix “Are you still watching?” screen after six hours. For Vasco, it’s the chance to pull away from the pack and stake a claim for that top-half comfort zone, maybe even dream about next season without the gnawing fear of a late relegation twist.

Expect fireworks, expect nerves, expect at least a couple moments where someone does something so inexplicable you swear you’re watching an Adam Sandler comedy instead of high-stakes football. Both teams have shown they can score and concede in equal measure—Fortaleza have six goals, seven conceded over their last five, Vasco’s looking at 10 and eight. Bookies have this down for goals, and I buy it—over 2.5 feels like a lock, and both teams to score is more probable than your uncle picking a fight after three beers at Christmas.

The wild card? The crowd at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo—think Gladiator: “Are you not entertained?” These fans will bring the heat. If Fortaleza score first, they might just ride that wave. If Vasco score early, it could be one-way traffic for the rest of the night.

So here’s how I see it: the narrative’s begging for Fortaleza to rise up, backs to the wall, a group of scrappy heroes clawing for hope. But Vasco are the side with momentum, firepower, and enough swagger to make you believe they’ll take this on the road. My money’s on goals, chaos, and at least one moment where the whole stadium holds its breath.

Let’s be real: if you’re missing this, you better have a good excuse—like you’re attending your own wedding or you’re the lead in a Quentin Tarantino flick. Otherwise, clear your schedule and prepare for a match with more plot twists than Breaking Bad.