If you’re looking for a match with more subplots than your average soap opera, circle October 19th at Cardinale Stadium. Monterey Bay, clinging to the fading embers of their season in 11th place, welcomes a Pittsburgh Riverhounds team that’s already punched its playoff ticket but still has plenty to prove. One club gasping for oxygen, the other already holding its breath for the playoff plunge—this one promises a collision of desperation and expectation.

Let’s start with the hosts, Monterey Bay. What a ride it’s been—if by ride, you mean a rollercoaster stuck mostly at the bottom. After a campaign that’s veered from stagnant to sputtering, they find themselves with just 28 points from as many matches, and a record that feels allergic to momentum: 7 wins, 7 draws, and a whopping 14 losses. They’ve managed only one win in their last five, and in those ten most recent matches, have averaged a paltry 0.3 goals per game. To call their attack toothless would be disrespectful to grandmothers everywhere who still have a little bite left.

Still, there’s a pulse. That 1-0 win over playoff-bound Sacramento Republic a couple of weeks back showed that when the moon is high, Monterey Bay can dig deep for a result. Trouble is, too often their midfield looks lost and their backline about as watertight as a pasta strainer, as evidenced by back-to-back 0-4 shellackings from Tampa Bay and Hartford Athletic. Their last five? LLDWL. That “W” stands alone, looking like someone wandered into the wrong party and stayed for a single round.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Cardinale Stadium isn’t exactly a house of horrors for the home side. Six of their seven wins have come on their own patch. With the pressure off and nothing to lose, Monterey Bay is unpredictable—a dangerous quality when you have nothing left but pride to play for and a crowd that would love a late October reason to cheer.

Now swing around to Pittsburgh, where the Riverhounds just clinched their eighth straight playoff berth. If consistency is a virtue, Pittsburgh’s front office must be running a monastery. They’ve staked out 40 points, good enough for sixth place and comfortably inside the postseason lines. Recent form has been patchy—a “LWWLW” sequence in the last five—but they’re coming off a critical 2-1 win over Indy Eleven that iced their ticket and, if you believe in momentum, should have them feeling lighter on the flight west.

The Hounds’ blueprint is built on resilience. They win tight games (just look at that 1-0 squeaker over Las Vegas and the late show against Hartford, where they grabbed the winner in the 89th minute), and when they lose, they rarely get run off the pitch. The goals don’t come in floods—the recent average is just 0.6 per game over the last ten—but the defense is robust and they have a knack for finding “that guy” when it matters. Last week, Griffin and Suber both got on the scoresheet, and it’s no surprise to see them earning Team of the Week honors. Suber, in particular, is an aerial threat on set pieces, and Griffin is the kind of midfielder who pops up everywhere, spoiling attacks and, on his day, starting them too.

Expect tactical chess. Monterey Bay, with little to defend but their dignity, may loosen the shackles and opt for risk—throwing numbers forward, pressing high, and hoping they catch Pittsburgh napping. But if they get stretched, it’s tailor-made for the Riverhounds to pounce: win the ball, break quickly, and let Suber or one of his running mates go to work on the counter. For Monterey, keeping it tight early is essential; an early concession and this could unravel fast.

The key battle may well be in the midfield trenches. Monterey Bay’s creative engine, whoever that’s meant to be lately, must find pockets and link play or it’ll be a long night of chasing shadows. For Pittsburgh, Griffin will be tasked with disrupting Monterey’s build and spraying passes to the flanks, where the Riverhounds can exploit any desperate space left by their hosts. Set pieces, too, loom large—Monterey has conceded too many from dead balls, while Suber and company have thrived when the game turns into a game of inches.

There’s also the subplot of pressure. Monterey Bay’s season is, for all intents and purposes, a smoldering ruin—but that frees them from anything resembling expectation. Sometimes, that’s the most dangerous opponent of all. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has the challenge of not letting their foot off the gas with playoffs secured—a test of mentality as much as quality. Rest too many starters, lose rhythm; go full strength, risk fatigue and injury. It’s a juggling act only the circus masters can appreciate.

So what’s on tap? A likely Riverhounds win, sure—but don’t call it a certainty. If Monterey Bay finds a way to channel their home-field moxie, if Pittsburgh sleepwalks in early, the script could get flipped and some poor playoff contender could be reading this and cursing Monterey’s “meaningless” motivation. If forced to call it, edge goes to Pittsburgh, something in the 2-0 or 2-1 region, as their big-game muscle memory and set piece prowess tilt the scales. But don’t bet your house. This is the USL Championship, after all—where hope is the last thing to leave the stadium, usually right after the lights.

And somewhere, in all that chaos, the beautiful unpredictability of October football is exactly why we keep watching.