The numbers tell you one story. The tape tells you another. And somewhere between the two lies the truth about Friday's collision at Edgeley Park.
Stockport County sits seventh, riding a three-match unbeaten streak in league play, collecting points like a team that's figured something out. Kyle Wootton has three goals in his last five appearances, and there's an efficiency to Dave Challinor's side that suggests they've moved past the growing pains of promotion. They're averaging 1.4 goals over their last ten—not spectacular, but sustainable. The kind of output that keeps you in the playoff conversation without making you the favorite for anything.
Then there's Exeter City, limping into town with one win in their last five league matches and offensive production that's dried up like a creek bed in August. They've managed just three goals in that stretch, and watching them try to create chances has become an exercise in frustration for Gary Caldwell. The manager brought in Jayden Wareham in the summer with hopes of solving their scoring problems, but one goal against Reading doesn't constitute a solution—it's barely a Band-Aid.
What makes this fixture more than just a mid-table slog between two sides trying to find their footing is the disconnect between expectation and execution. Stockport, in their first season back in League One since 1970, was supposed to struggle. Instead, they're punching above their weight class, turning Edgeley Park into something resembling a fortress where they've drawn both home matches this season but lost none. Oliver Norwood runs the midfield like a veteran conductor, and there's a belief in this squad that they belong here—something you can't teach, only earn.
Exeter came into this season with different ambitions. Fourth consecutive year in League One, roster reinforcements that looked promising on paper, enough institutional knowledge to avoid the mistakes that sink clubs at this level. Instead, they've failed to score in 60% of their recent matches, and their expected goals numbers suggest the drought isn't about bad luck—it's about bad process. When you're creating 1.28 expected goals per match and your strikers are converting air into disappointment, you've got problems that won't fix themselves.
The tactical battle centers on Stockport's ability to control tempo through Norwood while Exeter desperately searches for any rhythm in the final third. Caldwell's brought in six loan players this season, trying to manufacture chemistry through sheer volume of moves, but there's a reason "team cohesion" isn't something you can find in the transfer market. Carlos Mendes Gomes arrived on loan from Bolton in September with the hope he'd provide creative spark. So far, sparks haven't turned into fires.
For Stockport, this represents opportunity. Beat a struggling side at home, push your unbeaten run to four, and suddenly you're looking up the table instead of over your shoulder. Wootton's in form, the defense has conceded just once in their last three league matches, and there's momentum building that suggests this isn't a flash-in-the-pan promotion season. These are the matches promoted sides must win—not against the league leaders, but against teams supposed to be better than you who've forgotten how to play like it.
Exeter needs this match for different reasons. Drop points here, and you're staring at a reality where mid-table mediocrity becomes the ceiling rather than the floor. The statistical profile paints a concerning picture: 0% home wins, 100% failure to score at St James Park recently, and a team that looks more lost with each passing week. Danny Andrew signed from Stockport in September, and he'll return to face his former club knowing exactly what they're capable of—which might be the only advantage Exeter carries into this one.
The prediction market expects goals to be scarce, and nothing about Exeter's recent form suggests they'll suddenly remember how to finish chances. Stockport doesn't need to be brilliant—they just need to be competent, organized, and clinical enough to capitalize on one or two moments. That's been their formula all season, and there's no reason to believe Exeter possesses the offensive firepower to disrupt it.
Sometimes the stories write themselves. A promoted club overachieving meets an established side underperforming, and usually, the team with momentum takes what the team without confidence willingly surrenders. Edgeley Park on Friday afternoon feels like one of those afternoons where the script is already written—Stockport just needs to read their lines, and Exeter needs to figure out if they remember theirs at all.