The numbers tell you everything you need to know about what's coming on Sunday at the Ressacada. Criciúma, sitting pretty in second place with 53 points, haven't just been winning—they've been putting teams to the sword, averaging two goals per game in their last ten. Meanwhile, Avai, marooned in mid-table with 44 points, can barely muster a goal per game. On paper, this looks like a mismatch. In reality? This is where pressure does funny things to footballers.
Because here's what the table doesn't show you: Criciúma are riding high, yes, but they're also carrying the weight of expectation that comes with being promotion contenders. Every dropped point now feels like a crisis. Every away trip to a hostile ground becomes a test of nerve. And make no mistake, the Ressacada will be hostile. Avai might be languishing in eleventh, but they've drawn their last two matches, grinding out a point at Atletico Paranaense just days ago with João Vitor's early strike. That's a team that's stopped the rot, found their defensive shape, and suddenly remembered they're not as bad as their league position suggests.
The form lines couldn't be more contrasting if you'd scripted them for maximum drama. Criciúma have emerged from a wobble—that defeat at Amazonas, those draws against Vila Nova and Camboriú—to rediscover their scoring touch. Four goals past Caravaggio, two more against America Mineiro. Diego Gonçalves has been instrumental in this resurgence, finding the net in back-to-back matches. When a forward gets hot like that, when he's seeing the ball hit the back of the net in slow motion before he even strikes it, he becomes a problem that keeps defenders awake at night.
But here's where it gets interesting from a player's perspective. Avai know they're underdogs. There's liberation in that. No one expects them to win this match. The pressure sits entirely on Criciúma's shoulders—the traveling side, the promotion chasers, the team that should win. And that's when football gets psychological. Avai can play with freedom, throw bodies forward like they did against Volta Redonda when they put three past them. Cléber's first-minute opener in that match set the tone for an afternoon where everything clicked. Can they rediscover that ruthlessness? Can they make Criciúma's defenders think twice?
The tactical battle will be fascinating because it's essentially a clash of identities. Criciúma have been built on attacking intent—you don't average two goals per game by sitting deep and hoping for the best. They'll come to the Ressacada looking to impose themselves, to take the game to Avai, to silence the home crowd early. Jonathan's contribution against America Mineiro alongside Gonçalves shows they've got goals throughout the side, not just from one source. That's dangerous because you can't just mark one player out of the game.
Avai, conversely, have become pragmatists. Those back-to-back draws tell you they've tightened up at the back. They're not leaking goals like they were earlier in the campaign when defeats were piling up. João Vitor's ability to grab crucial goals—like that equalizer at Atletico Paranaense—gives them a focal point, someone who can make something from nothing. Marquinhos Gabriel and Thayllon Roberth showed against Volta Redonda that this team can hurt you if you give them space in transition.
The real question is whether Criciúma can handle the atmosphere and the expectation. Because this isn't just about three points—it's about maintaining momentum in a promotion race where every stumble gets magnified. They've got the quality, no doubt. They've got the form. But they've also got everything to lose. One sloppy pass, one moment of hesitation, one defensive lapse, and suddenly the home crowd is roaring and Avai believe they can cause an upset.
Sunday afternoon at the Ressacada is setting up to be one of those matches where the underdog has genuine teeth. Criciúma should win this—their attacking numbers suggest they will—but football isn't played on spreadsheets. It's played with hearts pounding and lungs burning, and sometimes the team with less to lose plays like they've got nothing to fear. And that's when upsets happen.