When you're rooted to the bottom of the table with just six points from eight matches, every game becomes a referendum on your season. For Excelsior, Saturday's clash with Fortuna Sittard isn't just another fixture on the calendar—it's a moment of reckoning that will define whether they can claw their way out of the relegation mire or resign themselves to a long, desperate winter battling the drop.
The numbers paint a brutal picture. Seventeen goals conceded in eight matches tells you everything about the fragility at the back, but what really cuts deep is the attacking output: averaging less than half a goal per game over their last ten. That's not just poor form—that's a team that's lost its identity in the final third. You can see it in their recent performances, those narrow defeats to Heerenveen and PSV where they found the net once but couldn't sustain any meaningful threat. When you're fighting at the bottom, those moments when you go ahead early—like Włodarczyk's strike against PSV—have to count for something. But they've been throwing points away with alarming regularity, and the mental scars from six losses in eight matches don't heal quickly.
The problem isn't effort; it rarely is at this level. These are professional footballers who understand the stakes. The issue is confidence, that invisible currency that determines whether you take the extra touch or pull the trigger, whether you commit to the tackle or hold off for fear of getting done. When you're second-bottom, every decision is weighted with consequence, and you can see it in the way Excelsior are playing—cautious, reactive, unable to impose themselves even at home.
Fortuna Sittard arrive at Stadion Woudestein in a completely different headspace. Eighth place, thirteen points, and a recent form line that shows they know how to win tight matches. That 1-0 victory over FC Volendam last time out might not have been pretty, but it was efficient—exactly the kind of professional performance that separates mid-table comfort from relegation anxiety. Justin Lonwijk's early goal settled any nerves, and they saw it through. That's what experience and belief do for you.
What makes Fortuna dangerous is their ability to hurt you in different ways. Mohamed Ihattaren brings technical quality that can unlock defenses with a single moment of brilliance—his winner against Utrecht demonstrated that class. They've got physical presence through Paul Gladon, who can occupy center-backs and create space for others. And there's enough pace and movement from players like Makan Aïko to exploit the kind of defensive uncertainty that's plagued Excelsior all season.
The tactical battle comes down to space and pressure. Excelsior will need to push higher up the pitch than they've been comfortable with, because sitting deep and inviting pressure is a recipe for disaster when your defensive record is this poor. But pushing up means leaving gaps in behind, and Fortuna have the quality to exploit that transition game. It's the classic dilemma for a struggling side: you need to be brave to get results, but bravery can be punished mercilessly when confidence is shot.
For Excelsior, Szymon Włodarczyk represents their best hope of finding goals. He's shown he can finish—two goals in recent weeks prove that—but he needs service, needs runners around him, needs his team to create situations where he can affect the game. Too often, he's been isolated, left to feed on scraps while Excelsior struggle to build anything coherent going forward.
The reality is that Fortuna Sittard will fancy their chances here, and they should. They're the better team on current form, more assured in their identity, more clinical in key moments. The odds reflecting them as favorites aren't generous, but they're accurate. They'll look to control possession in midfield, press Excelsior into mistakes, and capitalize on the nervousness that inevitably creeps into a team with just six points from eight matches.
But here's the thing about football at this level: desperation can be a powerful motivator. Excelsior are running out of time to turn their season around, and there comes a point where the fear of failure flips into a rawness that produces unexpected results. They're at home, they need points desperately, and sometimes that pressure creates the kind of intensity that can unsettle a more comfortable opponent.
Still, comfortable is the operative word here. Fortuna Sittard have the quality, the form, and the mentality to take all three points from Rotterdam. And if they do, Excelsior's season goes from concerning to critical.