Some teams limp into October with the season already written, footnotes and formalities penciled in. Not Guadalajara. Not Mazatlán. The stakes at Estadio AKRON this Sunday will be less about where these clubs are and more about how much they still believe in the myth of turning wheels, late surges, and what fans on both sides would call destiny—if destiny ever wore a jersey.

Guadalajara sits 9th, but don’t mistake that for mediocrity; the numbers are a lie if you only glance at the table and ignore the pulse. Their last three outings weren’t just wins, they were statements—Pumas outlasted at home, Puebla snuffed out early, and Necaxa simply run down by an attack that’s found the keys to the ignition at long last. Suddenly, Chivas look like the team nobody wants to draw when the Liguilla beckons. Three straight victories, seven goals, and an average of 1.3 per game over the last ten—that’s not just form, it’s momentum, swagger, maybe even fate tapping at the window with a sly grin.

Across the pitch, Mazatlán’s season started with the kind of optimism only a new outfit can muster, but as the weeks wore on, reality set in like a stubborn knot in the back. Thirteenth place, 11 points from a dozen games, and a recent record that has all the flavor of unsweetened coffee—winless, winless, then a gritty win against San Luis that proved, at the very least, they still know which net to hit. But their 0.7 goals per game in the last ten spells struggle, more labor than artistry, and defense that bends rather than breaks under pressure.

But narratives, like tactics, are fluid. If Chivas are the resurgent giant, Mazatlán could be the slingshot hoping for one perfect pebble. Guadalajara’s surging confidence will be marshaled by the likes of Armando González, whose recent scoring exploits (goals in back-to-back games, crucial strikes in both home and away tilts) have him playing with the kind of freedom that keeps defenders up at night. Add in the steady hand of Daniel Aguirre—his late winner at Pumas is still echoing around the training ground—and you see a side proactively hunting points rather than waiting for handouts.

Mazatlán, for their part, have found sparks in places most defenders don’t like to look. Anderson Duarte’s brace at León showed he can change a game against any backdrop, while Bryan Colula’s late dramatics against San Luis (a 90th-minute clincher) should have Guadalajara’s back line reviewing film with a little more urgency this week.

The tactical chessboard might tip toward Chivas, whose wide play and early pressing have paid dividends. Bryan González and Omar Govea’s early goals at Puebla were less about luck and more about a team that knows how to suffocate opponents before they get their bearings. Watch for their overlapping fullbacks, aggressive in the first twenty minutes, hoping to pin Mazatlán before they adjust to the altitude, the atmosphere, and maybe the noise rattling in from the stands.

Mazatlán’s best hope lies in transition and the occasional set piece. They’ve struggled to break down organized blocks, but as León and Atlas learned, give them space—a dash of chaos—and suddenly they look dangerous. Facundo Almada has the knack for ghosting into the box late, which could spell trouble if Chivas commit too much going forward.

What’s at stake? For Chivas, it’s about proving the turnaround isn’t a mirage, that this late-season punch is title-contention real, not just a purple patch. For Mazatlán, the story is all about survival, a stubborn refusal to be penciled in as “also-rans” before the final whistle blows on the season.

Predictions in Mexican football are a mug’s game, but the smart money says Chivas keep the engine running, maybe with a bit less ease than their recent run suggests. Mazatlán will pack the midfield, look to frustrate, and hope for a moment of clarity from Duarte or Colula. Expect a game where the first goal settles nerves—and quite possibly settles the debate.

So the table says mid-table versus lower-table, but the subtext says belief versus desperation, form versus the hope of an upset. On Sunday, at Estadio AKRON, expect ninety minutes that remind us why league tables are only half the story, and why hope, in football, is the last thing to go. Bring your heart, and maybe, bring a calculator—because after this one, the arithmetic for both clubs could look very different.