The numbers tell one story, but football always tells another. Rosario Central sits comfortably in fourth place, unbeaten in the Liga Profesional, carrying the swagger of a team that just took down River Plate and Vélez Sarsfield in consecutive matches. Platense, meanwhile, languishes in thirteenth, scrapping for draws and searching desperately for defensive solutions. On paper, this Sunday's clash at the Gigante de Arroyito looks like a formality—another three points for the Canalla in their pursuit of Copa Libertadores qualification.

But here's what the league table doesn't show: Central is playing with fire, and eventually, you get burned.

Look closely at that unbeaten record—eleven matches without defeat sounds impressive until you realize six of those are draws. This is a team that has made a habit of surrendering leads, of inviting pressure when they should be killing games. Against Boca Juniors, they let a winnable match slip into stalemate. Against Talleres Córdoba, same story. Even in their recent victories, the pattern persists: they've scored first in seven of their eleven matches this season, yet somehow find themselves grinding out narrow wins or accepting dropped points.

That 2-1 victory over Vélez last weekend? Central held the lead for seventy-three minutes before conceding late, spending the final stages clinging to a result rather than controlling it. The River Plate win featured an identical scoreline, with Ignacio Malcorra's 59th-minute goal proving just enough cushion. Three-nil against Gimnasia looks dominant until you notice two of those goals came after the 83rd minute—insurance policies taken out after spending most of the match protecting a single-goal advantage.

The tactical blueprint is clear: Matías Lequi has built Central around rapid transitions and individual brilliance. Alejo Véliz, with his movement between the lines and predatory instincts in the box, provides the cutting edge up front. The young striker has found the net consistently, but he's operating in a system that generates chances in bunches before retreating into a compact mid-block. Malcorra, drifting in from wide positions, offers creativity and set-piece quality. When Ángel Di María makes his cameo appearances, the quality spikes dramatically—but you can't build a sustainable approach around a 37-year-old legend playing fifteen-minute stretches.

The defensive structure is where Central's philosophy reveals its vulnerabilities. Franco Ibarra anchors the midfield, tasked with screening the back line during transitions, but the width of Central's defensive shape when protecting leads creates exploitable channels. Teams that can move the ball quickly through the thirds and commit numbers forward have found joy against this setup. Central's clean sheet against Gimnasia was their first since early September. That's one shutout in eight matches—a troubling trend for a team with Libertadores ambitions.

Which brings us to Platense, a side that should be perfect fodder for Central's approach. The visitors have scored four goals in their last ten matches, a drought that reflects deeper structural issues in their attacking third. Ronaldo Martínez has carried whatever offensive threat exists, but he's working in isolation, starved of service from a midfield that struggles to progress the ball under pressure. Their recent draw with Deportivo Riestra—a match they desperately needed to win—exemplified their limitations: one goal from a set piece, then an hour of desperate defending.

Yet Platense's compact 4-4-2 defensive shape, designed specifically to frustrate superior opponents, presents exactly the type of challenge that has befuddled Central all season. They sit deep, deny space between the lines, and force opponents to break them down through patience and precision. Central doesn't do patience. They want to hit you quickly, exploit transitions, force mistakes. When teams park the bus, Central's lack of creative depth beyond Malcorra becomes glaring.

The matchup between Véliz and Platense's center-back pairing will determine whether Central can breach that low block early. If the young striker can find pockets of space and convert an early chance, the match opens up. But if Platense can frustrate Central for thirty, forty minutes? The anxiety will creep in. The crowd will grow restless. The defensive structure will stretch as Central pushes higher, creating exactly the kind of counter-attacking opportunities that have produced goals against this team.

Central needs this match. With only four fixtures remaining in the Anual table and Libertadores qualification on the line, dropped points at home against a team seventeen points behind them would be catastrophic. The pressure is entirely on the hosts, and pressure makes teams do strange things—like sit back when they should attack, like panic when they should stay composed.

Platense has nothing to lose. They'll arrive in Rosario with a simple plan: survive, frustrate, and hope for a mistake. And Central, for all their quality and their unbeaten run, has shown all season long that they're more than capable of providing exactly that mistake. Expect Central to create enough chances to win three times over. Expect them to convert just enough to take the lead. And expect the final twenty minutes to feel like an eternity.