Two mid-table sides. Three points apart. One night in Vitoria that could change the narrative for a pair of clubs desperate to claw their way back to relevance in La Liga. That’s the stage at Estadio Mendizorrotza as Alaves host Valencia—a game so much bigger than 10th versus 15th would have you believe, and one loaded with consequence for both managers and the direction of their seasons.
Alaves arrive riding a rare high after their 3-1 dismantling of Elche, a performance that snapped them out of inconsistency and showcased what they’re truly capable of when it all clicks. Carlos Vicente continues to look the part, his late goal last time out underlining just how much his finishing means to a side not known for lighting up the scoreboard. Toni Martínez has added bite through the middle, and Lucas Boyé, with his late strike, has begun to justify his summer billing. There’s momentum here, but let’s not confuse it with comfort. This is a team that has scored, on average, just 0.6 goals per game over their last 10 matches and still hasn’t developed a killer instinct, evident in their habit of dropping points from winning positions.
Flip the script to the visitors and what you see is a Valencia side teetering on the edge—not in free-fall, but certainly in need of a foothold. Two agonizingly close defeats (2-1 to Girona, and 2-1 at home to Oviedo) have sapped confidence, and the scar of that 6-0 humiliation at Camp Nou still lingers. But ignore Valencia at your peril. Arnaut Danjuma remains a constant menace with goals in back-to-back games, and Hugo Duro’s finishing can turn a game in an instant. What’s worrying for the visitors is the absence of defensive composure; injuries—most notably to Mouctar Diakhaby—have forced manager Rubén Baraja to shuffle his backline, and sources tell me José Copete is set to start in central defense, a move that will test his readiness under pressure.
Look closer at the numbers and there’s a contradiction brewing. These two teams are hardly setting offensive records—both averaging around 0.6 goals per game in their last ten, both stifled by cautious, sometimes ponderous build-up. And yet, this fixture in Vitoria has a history of surprising us. Six of the last nine games between these sides here have seen three or more goals, and both teams’ recent home and away records, respectively, show that goals might just come in bunches after all. For the punters, there’s value in expecting a cagey first hour opening up late, especially if the dam breaks on one end.
Midfield will be the battleground—Ander Guevara’s energy and ball-winning against the experienced Baptiste Santamaria for Valencia. This duel could decide where possession flows. If Alaves can win the midfield scraps and transition quickly, Carlos Vicente can exploit Valencia’s makeshift central defense, especially with Copete being targeted early and often. On the other hand, watch for Valencia to try to set traps on the counter with Danjuma peeling wide and isolating Alaves’ fullbacks, who have been caught out before when play breaks down high up the pitch.
Tactically, Alaves under Luis García have tilted towards conservatism when under pressure, but the last outing saw a noticeably more aggressive press. If he releases the handbrake again, Mendizorrotza could become a cauldron, amplifying every Valencia misstep. For Baraja, the focus must be on organization and limiting space between the lines, trusting that Danjuma and Duro can conjure something out of thin air.
The stakes? More than just three points. For Alaves, a win means daylight from the bottom half and a clear claim for mid-table stability, reinforcing the belief that last week’s spark was more than a fluke. For Valencia, it’s about survival instincts—stop the rot, regain confidence, and show that this group has more to offer than recent results suggest. Lose here, and the murmurs back home grow into full-throated discontent, especially with their tradition and resources demanding better.
Prediction markets and algorithmic models are split—some see a low-scoring draw, others an Alaves edge driven by home advantage, but there’s broad consensus on one point: don’t expect a goal fest, but don’t rule out late drama as desperation mounts.
When the whistle blows on October 20, it won’t be a clash of La Liga titans, but it will be a battle with all the tension and narrative power you’d want: two teams straining to break free of mediocrity, key players with points to prove, and managers whose tactical tweaks and substitutions could make or break reputations. In the cold Basque night, with points and pride on the line, don’t blink—this one has the makings of a slow-burn classic.