Atletico Madrid enters this clash with a mix of urgency and expectation, facing off against Deportivo Alaves in what could very well determine the trajectory of their La Liga ambitions. The stakes are clear: Atletico sits comfortably in fourth place, eyeing Champions League qualification, while Alaves lingers precariously just above the relegation zone in 16th. Recent performances have been starkly contrasting; Atletico's recent struggles-losing to arch-rivals Real Madrid-underscore the tension that hangs over this contest. Will Atletico emerge from their slump with a tactical masterclass, or will Alaves capitalize on their slight upturn in form to deliver a shock result?
Predicted Lineups
Atletico Madrid: GK: Jan Oblak, DEF: Nahuel Molina, Robin Le Normand, Matteo Ruggeri, Dávid Hancko MID: Koke, Alejandro Baena, Marcos Llorente FWD: Antoine Griezmann, Alexander Sørloth
Alaves: GK: Antonio Sivera, DEF: Jonny Otto, Yusi, Nahuel Tenaglia, Victor Parada MID: Antonio Blanco, Carles Aleñá FWD: Lucas Boyé, Toni Martínez
As we delve deeper into each team's tactics and recent form leading into this clash at the Metropolitano Stadium on January 18th, one fact becomes painfully obvious: Atletico's pressing need for an assertive performance comes after a recent sequence of mixed results. Despite their solid possession stats-hovering around 54% against Deportivo La Coruna-their inability to finish games convincingly raises questions about both their attacking prowess and defensive solidity.
Atletico's lineup consistently operates within a rigid 4-4-2 formation, providing stability across the midfield and defense while allowing wide players like Koke and Marcos Llorente to exploit spaces out wide. However, it's vital to note that despite holding possession against teams like Girona and Deportivo La Coruna-both matches ending in wins-they often struggled to convert chances effectively. They averaged around 10 shots per game recently, but only managed an average of two shots on target per match during those encounters. This points to a finishing issue-a systemic failure that could be exploited by any team willing to press high.
On the flip side is Alaves' recent uptick in confidence following a morale-boosting win against Rayo Vallecano in the Copa del Rey. While they currently occupy a precarious spot on the league table with just 19 points from 19 matches, they are beginning to find cohesion under pressure. Their recent switch between formations-including attempts at both 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-4-1 setups-offers flexibility but also exposes potential vulnerabilities when transitioning back defensively.
Statistically speaking, Alaves' season has been marked by an alarming inconsistency; they've conceded numerous goals (totaling 29), yet they've occasionally shown flashes of offensive capability-with players like Lucas Boyé, who has scored twice in his last few outings as key figures leading their charge forward. In terms of expected goals (xG), their chances created reflect an xG tally close to 20 for the season-but those metrics often fail to translate into concrete results when finishing is subpar.
Looking specifically at head-to-head encounters reveals that these teams remain evenly matched historically; both sides drew their previous encounter 1-1 back in August 2025. That match illustrated how tactical execution can outweigh talent disparities at times-a theme likely to resurface given both teams' current trajectories.
Key battles loom large on Saturday afternoon: how effectively can Atletico convert possession into goals against a more resolute Alaves? Furthermore, can Alaves capitalize on any weaknesses left exposed by Atletico's ambitious high line? With players like Antoine Griezmann needing no introduction thanks to his knack for popping up where it matters most-notably scoring five times so far this season-it'll fall upon him alongside Sørloth to break through whatever defensive unit Alaves presents.
Alaves will look towards dynamic midfielders such as Carles Aleñá and playmaker Toni Martínez to connect play centrally while exploiting gaps left behind by the hosts when breaking forward quickly. Expect them to seek quick transitions via counterattacks which could yield opportunities if they successfully bypass Atletico's lines early.
In conclusion-the core conflict shapes up succinctly here: an aggressive Atletico eager for three crucial points battling against an organized yet struggling Alaves outfit intent on creating an upset through disciplined structure coupled with counter-attacking bursts.
The overwhelming statistical indicators suggest that while Atleti might dominate possession-expect them hovering above 55% again-they need efficiency as well as clinical edge inside opposing territory; otherwise settling for another lackluster performance isn't merely conceivable-it's probable!
So what's my call? Strap yourselves in because I'm sensing this matchup culminates not just with typical tightness but perhaps an upset lurking; given all factors weighed carefully combined with underlying stats I predict something akin towards... a narrow victory for Atletico Madrid, edging out around 2-1 courtesy of late-game heroics from either Griezmann or Sørloth clutching what may turn out pivotal come season end!
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