The Clash of Survival: Alaves vs. Oviedo
January 4, 2026, brings a nail-biter of a La Liga encounter as Alaves host Oviedo at the Estadio Mendizorrotza. Both teams are entrenched in a survival battle with the specter of relegation looming ominously. Alaves currently sit precariously in 14th place with just 18 points, while Oviedo languishes at the bottom in 19th, scraping together only 11 points from their efforts this season. The stakes couldn't be higher; each team needs not just three points but the momentum that comes with it to ignite their season.
Predicted Lineups: GK: Antonio Sivera, DEF: Jonny Otto, Victor Parada, Nahuel Tenaglia, Jon Pacheco; MID: Carlos Vicente, Denis Suárez, Antonio Blanco; FWD: Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé, Abderrahman Rebbach (Alaves) GK: Aarón Escandell, DEF: David Carmo, Abdel Rahim, David Costas; MID: Santiago Colombatto, Leander Dendoncker, Alberto Reina; FWD: Salomón Rondón, Federico Viñas (Oviedo)
Diving into the numbers reveals stark contrasts between these two sides. Alaves has shown signs of life lately despite recent inconsistency-grabbing a surprising win against Sevilla in the Copa del Rey and taking Real Madrid down to the wire before succumbing narrowly. They boast an admirable ball possession percentage averaging around 53%, which illustrates a commendable ability to control tempo. However, they struggle to convert possession into goals as highlighted by their expected goals (xG) tally-markedly lower than what they could create in scoring opportunities.
In contrast, Oviedo's statistics tell a different story-while they often dominate possession as seen in their last outing against Celta Vigo where they commanded 55% possession and had an impressive pass accuracy of 85%, results are sadly lacking. Their failure to score-a grim statistic illustrated by back-to-back goalless draws-reveals significant problems converting chances. They've recorded just two wins all season and have scored only seven goals across their last five matches combined.
What does this mean for match day? For Alaves' offensive unit led by Lucas Boyé and Carlos Vicente-a player who recently broke through with three crucial goals this season-the opportunity is ripe against an Oviedo defense that has leaked far too many goals (averaging nearly two per match). They need only to look at Oviedo's disastrous defeat to Sevilla where they crumbled under pressure conceding four times without reply.
Meanwhile, Oviedo will rely heavily on its midfield playmakers like Santiago Colombatto and Leander Dendoncker to provide some creative spark for forwards Salomón Rondón and Federico Viñas. They must capitalize on set-pieces or any lapses from an Alaves defense that hasn't been impenetrable this season either.
Tactical Showdown
On paper, both teams showcase distinct styles: Alaves thrives on its pressing game seeking quick turnovers while attempting to exploit space on the counterattack. Meanwhile, Oviedo leans towards more positional play but has been guilty of overpassing and lacking decisiveness in critical areas-resulting in dropped points week after week.
When we dissect individual performances within these tactical frameworks-consider Toni Martínez's contributions for Alaves alongside his average rating of 6.81-the urgency becomes apparent for him to produce more output if they're going to claim all three points. The same applies to Oviedo's most prominent threats; Rondón needs to up his ante after netting only twice thus far while leading the line as he was expected to provide goal-scoring proficiency.
The pressure mounts on goalkeepers too: can Aarón Escandell step up when needed or will Antonio Sivera's steady hand between the sticks tilt this battle? Sivera's calm demeanor under pressure has shown dividends already-he's made crucial saves keeping games alive for his side even when faced with mounting shot totals against them.
Considering their recent forms coupled with historical head-to-head matchups favoring Alaves in terms of defensive solidity at home-it all leads one way: a tightly contested clash that likely ends with fewer fireworks than desired but critical implications nonetheless!
Bold Prediction
Ultimately though it's about who wants it more! With survival riding on every kick and decision made throughout those nerve-racking ninety minutes-the outcome hangs finely poised like a pendulum caught between victory or despair.
With current trends suggesting a drop-off from Oviedo amid mounting anxiety compounded by uninspired attacking performances facing an equally desperate foe hungry for those vital points-I predict an edge for Alaves finding success through grit along with tactical discipline yielding a hard-fought yet narrow win.
Expect one final goal scored late-with perhaps Carlos Vicente adding another tally alongside Lucas Boyé's prowess shining through amidst pressure-cooker circumstances! Mark my words: it's going to be electric-but hold onto your seats because nothing is assured until that final whistle blows!