There's something brutally honest happening in Oaxaca right now, and it's time we talk about it. When Alebrijes welcome CA La Paz to the Estadio Tecnológico on Friday morning, we're not watching a showcase of Mexican football's second division—we're watching two clubs traveling in completely opposite directions, and the gap between them tells us everything about survival in Liga de Expansión MX.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca sit thirteenth with just seven points from nine matches. That's a 2-1-6 record, folks. Two wins. Six losses. The arithmetic is unforgiving. But here's what really cuts deep: they're averaging 0.4 goals per game across those nine contests. Point-four. That's not a statistical blip—that's a systemic offensive crisis. When your attack sputters like a flooded engine, when you can't manufacture consistent scoring chances, you're not just losing matches. You're losing the war of attrition that defines relegation battles.
Yet there's been a pulse check these last two outings. Back-to-back victories, first that gutsy 2-1 road win at Dorados where J. Cruz struck in the 69th minute, then last week's defensive masterclass at Tapatío—a clean sheet, a 1-0 result, the kind of gritty three points that can shift momentum. Two wins don't erase six losses, but they suggest something's clicked tactically. Perhaps it's a simplified defensive shape, perhaps it's Cruz finally finding service in dangerous areas, or perhaps it's just desperation manifesting as focus. Whatever it is, Alebrijes have stumbled upon a formula: defend with discipline, strike opportunistically, protect leads with bodies on the line.
But then you look across the pitch at La Paz, and the contrast is stark. Seventh place, twelve points, a 3-3-3 record that speaks to balance if not brilliance. More tellingly, they're pumping in 1.9 goals per game. While Alebrijes struggle to create a single quality chance, La Paz are routinely finding the back of the net multiple times. That September stretch was particularly explosive—three straight wins with three goals scored in each match. They hung three on Dorados, three on Leones Negros, three on Monarcas. That's not luck. That's an attacking system generating consistent volume.
Here's where the tactical chess match gets fascinating: La Paz just surrendered four goals to Cancún last Friday in a wild 4-2 defeat. Before that, they traded punches in a 3-3 draw at Tlaxcala, twice equalizing in stoppage time to salvage a point. This is a team that plays with attacking intent but defensive vulnerability. They score in bunches but concede with alarming regularity. That stylistic approach creates opportunity for Alebrijes, who've suddenly discovered how to protect leads and capitalize on mistakes.
The matchup screams tactical collision. Alebrijes want to compress space, defend in numbers, and exploit transitions with Cruz as the primary outlet. La Paz want to dictate possession, commit numbers forward, and overwhelm defenses with movement and combinations. One team plays with the caution of the desperate; the other with the abandon of the confident. The question becomes whether Oaxaca's newfound defensive solidity can withstand La Paz's attacking volume, or whether the visitors' leaky backline presents openings that Alebrijes simply don't have the firepower to exploit.
Playing at home might be Oaxaca's saving grace. The Estadio Tecnológico isn't some cauldron of noise, but it's their pitch, their dimensions, their familiarity. For a team clinging to survival, home fixtures are everything. You manufacture advantages wherever possible. You squeeze every ounce of comfort from familiar surroundings. La Paz arrives having just shipped four goals, mentally fragile, potentially overconfident against a struggling opponent.
But let's be clear-eyed about this: form lines and recent results only matter if you can execute for ninety minutes. Alebrijes have won twice in nine attempts. They score less than half a goal per game. Those aren't numbers that inspire confidence, even with two straight victories. La Paz, meanwhile, have the attacking weapons to punish any defensive lapse, any momentary loss of concentration. One breakdown, one miscommunication at the back, and suddenly Alebrijes are chasing the game—and chasing hasn't worked well for them this season.
The reality? This match represents everything at stake in Mexico's second tier. One team fighting for relevance, the other fighting for survival. La Paz should have the quality to control proceedings and find goals. But football doesn't always respect quality. Sometimes desperation, home support, and two consecutive wins create just enough belief to manufacture another unlikely result. Either way, someone's walking away from Oaxaca with three critical points, and someone's wondering how much longer they can tread water.