The stakes couldn't be higher as Bolton Wanderers and Port Vale face off in the Round of 16 of the EFL Trophy at Toughsheet Community Stadium on January 13, 2026. With only two points separating them at the top of the table, this encounter has all the makings of a tactical masterclass. A victory will not only secure advancement to the quarter-finals but also assert dominance in a fiercely contested League One battle. It's a must-win scenario, setting the stage for an electric clash between these two teams.
Predicted Lineups: GK: Tyler Miller, DEF: Max Conway/George Johnston/Eoin Toal/Cyrus Christie, MID: Ethan Erhahon/Josh Sheehan/Kyle Dempsey/Amario Cozier-Duberry; ATT: Mason Burstow GK: Joe Gauci, DEF: Cameron Humphreys/Ben Heneghan/Mitchell Clark, MID: George Byers/Jordan Shipley/Ryan Croasdale; ATT: Devante Cole/Jayden Stockley
Let's break down what each team brings to this pivotal match-up. Bolton enters this contest riding high on their recent performances despite facing some hiccups. Their last five matches reveal a team struggling with consistency - notably drawing their most recent outings against Northampton and Doncaster after dominating possession (70% and 58%, respectively). This pattern suggests that while they can control games, converting that control into decisive victories is an ongoing issue.
In contrast, Port Vale comes into this fixture having won three out of their last five games, recently showcasing their attacking prowess with a resounding 5-1 thrashing of Blackpool. They are riding momentum from that FA Cup victory against Fleetwood Town just days before this clash. The emerging chemistry between key attackers like Devante Cole and Jayden Stockley could pose a significant threat to Bolton's backline.
Delving deeper into match statistics from both teams reveals critical insights that could tip the scales on match day. For example, Bolton has averaged a staggering 70% ball possession, suggesting they will seek to dictate play and force errors from Port Vale's defense. However, their struggles in finding the back of the net when chances arise are troubling; they've managed only two goals across their last three fixtures despite a high number of total shots - an alarming trend considering they've outshot opponents like Northampton (17-8) but settled for draws instead.
Meanwhile, Port Vale's attacking metrics reflect a more clinical approach lately - especially demonstrated by their ability to convert chances during that explosive match against Blackpool where they scored five goals from just six shots on target. The tactical setup employed by manager Andy Crosby allows them to counterattack effectively while exploiting defensive vulnerabilities in opposition lines - something Bolton needs to watch closely.
From individual standpoints, look for Amario Cozier-Duberry, who has been dynamite for Bolton with seven goals in his last fifteen appearances. His creativity and pace can stretch any defense thin if he finds space along the flanks or cuts inside. On Port Vale's side, keep an eye on Devante Cole-his knack for being in goal-scoring positions was evident when he netted twice against Blackpool and remains one of League One's rising stars with six goals already this season.
A telling factor heading into this encounter will be set-pieces-Bolton's defenders tend to dominate aerial duels thanks to players like George Johnston contributing significantly with tackles won per game (averaging around five). Conversely, Port Vale will need to improve upon their discipline; they've recorded too many fouls leading to dangerous set-piece situations against them in past matches which could be crucial given how effective Bolton has been from corners.
In terms of overall form leading up to this match-up: it's a classic case of contrasting trajectories and styles clashing under pressure. If Bolton can finally translate their control into goals while maintaining defensive solidity against quick counterattacks from Port Vale, we may see them emerge victorious. However, should Port Vale exploit any lapses in concentration by Bolton-like those seen when they drew vs Doncaster-they could very well pull off an upset and send shockwaves through this tournament.
Given both teams' current form coupled with head-to-head history-the last meeting saw Bolton demolishing Port Vale 4-0-it'll be hard not to lean toward predicting another win for Bolton unless we see signs of mental fortitude from Port Vale overcoming recent history.
With everything considered: I foresee Bolton edging out this close contest based largely on superior possession stats combined with home advantage-potentially winning by a narrow margin. Expect exciting drama but ultimately stability winning out as the Trotters seize command at Toughsheet Community Stadium!