If you’re a fan of Europa League scramble—the kind that feels like a prestige TV drama in the middle of its third season, when every episode counts and no protagonist is safe—then circle October 23 with a red marker, maybe splash a little coffee on it for good measure. BSC Young Boys vs Ludogorets at Stadion Wankdorf isn’t just another Thursday night Euro contest. It’s two teams staring down the barrel of elimination, clutching identical records, and, honestly, probably feeling like they’re one bad plot twist away from turning into extras on someone else’s highlight reel.

Look, the stakes here aren’t Real Madrid-in-a-final big, but they’re the kind of stakes that drive the best sports stories: two clubs with a history of punching above their weight nationally, now thrown together in the European ring, trading haymakers for the scrap of “We Still Matter This Season.” Both teams are sitting on 3 points from 2 played—1 win, 1 loss. If Europa League groups were a high school cafeteria, they’d be at the “not-quite-cool but definitely not-loser” table, eyeing the popular kids and plotting a seat upgrade.

Young Boys should technically have the home-field advantage—Wankdorf is their fortress, and in Switzerland that means something. But their recent form is like watching an episode of The Sopranos where Tony’s crew keeps botching jobs: LLWWL, which, if you squint, looks less like a results sequence and more like the sound your car makes when it’s refusing to start. That 0-5 loss at Lausanne? Ugly, like the final season of Lost ugly. But just when you’re ready to call in the medics, they turn around and smack FCSB 2-0 in the Europa League, courtesy of Joël Monteiro’s brace. Monteiro, by the way, is becoming their version of Jon Snow—carrying the narrative when everyone else is staring at the wall wondering why winter came.

Now, flip the channel to Ludogorets. The Bulgarian champs always show up like the sneaky villains in any action movie, quietly racking up wins while you’re focused on the big-name heroes. But lately? They’ve been caught between genres: their last 5 matches are DWWLD, including a goal-shy 0-0 at CSKA Sofia and a humbling 0-2 to Real Betis. Their goal average is 0.6 per game in the last 10—basically, the kind of output that has you begging for a plot twist. When they do score, it’s usually through Ivajlo Chochev or Bernard Tekpetey, who are like Ludogorets’ answer to classic buddy-cop duos: one brings the muscle, the other the speed. Chochev in particular is the midfield engine—think Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive, always chasing the action but never quite getting the headline.

So what’s the tactical chessboard going to look like? Young Boys have shown, at their best, they can blitz teams with pace—Sergio Córdova and Chris Bedia are their fast-break kids, the equivalent of NBA guards slashing to the rim. You’d expect them to use the width at Wankdorf and try to break down Ludogorets with early balls, like Fassnacht ghosting in for a late goal (he’s basically the Swiss version of Ray Allen, waiting for that corner three). Their pressing game is risk/reward—it can lead to quick counters, but as Lausanne recently proved, it leaves you wide open for a bad turnover and the defensive equivalent of being posterized.

Ludogorets, meanwhile, live for the counter. They sit deep, absorb, then hit back with Tekpetey’s lightning runs—imagine Mission: Impossible chase scenes with slightly fewer explosions. Petar Stanić is the wild card; he’s scored recently, and you get the feeling he’s the kind of player who, given half a chance, will turn the match on its head with a long-range screamer. But their problem is finishing: too many matches where the script is good until the final act, then it turns into a mumblecore drama and nobody gets what they want.

If you’re looking for tactical nuance, watch the midfield battle. Young Boys rely on Janko and Fassnacht to control tempo, set up Monteiro, and keep Córdova involved. If Ludogorets can disrupt that rhythm, force Young Boys into hurried clearances or force the play through the flanks, they’ll get their opening. At the same time, if the Swiss side gets an early goal, they could run away with it; but if Ludogorets get a sniff on a counter, expect the home crowd to go quiet in a hurry.

What’s at stake? Everything for group-stage survivors. Win here and you’re in the conversation—lose and you’re looking at the Europa League’s equivalent of a back alley, where the lights get dim and the press stops caring. It’s not Champions League glory, but it’s respect, relevance, revenue. You know, the stuff that keeps football clubs from being reduced to trivia questions five years down the road.

Prediction? If this were a Marvel movie, it would be the bit right before the big battle, when both sides are sizing each other up, trading quips, and nobody wants to blink. My gut says Young Boys hold the edge at home—they’ve got the firepower, the crowd, and Monteiro’s hot hand. But if Ludogorets play it smart, keep the script tight, and Tekpetey finds space, all bets are off.

Bottom line: This is appointment television if you love the messy, wonderful drama of early knockout football. Somebody’s walking out of Wankdorf feeling like the lead actor. Someone else is getting written out of the script. Grab your popcorn, set your reminders—this is the kind of match where stories are made.