The stakes couldn't be higher as Derby and Leeds prepare to clash in the FA Cup Round of 64 at Pride Park this January 11, 2026. For Derby, this is more than just a cup tie; it's a chance for redemption after suffering three defeats in their last five Championship outings. Leeds, on the other hand, find themselves battling against form as they sit precariously close to the drop zone in the Premier League. They come into this match nursing their wounds after an eye-popping 3-4 loss to Newcastle but still boast that streaky firepower capable of breaking through any defense.
Let's get right to it: if Derby is going to advance, they'll need to harness the electricity of the cup's unpredictability and shake off the ghosts of past performances. Their recent form reveals a mixed bag-a solitary win against Middlesbrough was sandwiched between a couple of draws and two losses, including an alarming defeat against Wrexham where they dominated possession yet failed to capitalize on their chances (14 shots but only one goal). That's like having all the cake and not taking a slice-disappointing!
Predicted Lineups
Both teams have shown a degree of tactical flexibility lately:
- Derby: GK: Jacob Widell Zetterström, DEF: Matthew Clarke, Dion Sanderson, Sondre Klingen Langås, MID: Callum Elder, Bobby Clark, Ebou Adams, Liam Thompson, Joe Ward, FWD: Patrick Agyemang, Ben Brereton Díaz.
- Leeds: GK: Lucas Perri, DEF: Jaka Bijol, Pascal Struijk, Joe Rodon, MID: Brenden Aaronson, Ethan Ampadu, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Anton Stach; FWD: Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Now let's break down what these formations might reveal about each side's approach.
Leeds have displayed an attacking mindset under pressure-scoring four goals against Crystal Palace just weeks ago-but they've also let in far too many. Their defense leaks like a sieve at times; take note of their last match where they conceded four times to Newcastle despite sharing six shots with them on target. Not exactly confidence-inducing for their back line. This will put significant pressure on goalkeeper Lucas Perri-who has had his share of struggles-with his rating dropping slightly below average in recent outings.
Meanwhile for Derby, creativity appears sparse beyond player C. Morris, who leads the team with ten goals this season despite minimal service from midfielders struggling with passing accuracy under pressure (73% is far from ideal). They'll be relying heavily on Ben Brereton Díaz's pace and skill up front-a tall order when facing Leeds' robust defensive setup.
Look for this match-up to center around ball control and finishing prowess: Derby often seems content playing possession-based football but fails time and again to translate that control into actual goals. They managed an xG of only 1.10 against Wrexham despite controlling over 52% possession-the numbers indicate glaring issues in their attack needing urgent rectification before Saturday's whistle blows.
Contrastingly for Leeds: while their attacks can look majestic (look no further than Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who's currently bagged seven goals across competitions), defensive frailties leave them open-and we see how vital expected goals becomes here! In matches like their 0-0 draw with Liverpool recently-where Leeds barely threatened-the inability to score can crush morale faster than a missed penalty kick.
As both teams step onto Pride Park turf-a venue renowned for its electric atmosphere-you'll likely witness two contrasting styles at play: one looking desperately for fluidity within rigid tactics; another testing strength versus speed on rapid counters.
What makes this FA Cup clash riveting lies not just in team structures but individual narratives weaving through it all. For Derby's star forward Morris, he's got two assists tucked away along with his ten strikes; compare that with Leeds' Aaronson contributing crucial support for Calvert-Lewin-his artistry coming alive can tip any game dramatically towards victory.
In sum: expect fireworks if both sides unleash full-force offensively but keep an eye glued on defensive errors-a slip-up could shatter aspirations quicker than you can say "knockout football."
Looking ahead towards our prediction: based purely on current trajectories-combined with standout individual performances-I sense we're set up for yet another chapter in the fairytale that often accompanies domestic cups where lower-league heroes slay giants under floodlights!
Here comes my hot take: I'm backing Derby for an upset victory by narrowly edging out Leeds 2-1 thanks primarily to Morris grabbing one while Aaronson finds himself contained effectively by Derby's resolute defending giving them much-needed momentum ahead into deeper rounds should luck finally turn! After all-the magic belongs not solely to history but also newly written tales crafted by brave hearts readying themselves against adversities!