In a clash that could tilt the balance of momentum in the Ethiopian Premier League, Dire Dawa Kenema hosts Mebrat Hayl at the Dire Dawa Stadium on January 9, 2026. Currently embroiled in a fight for points, Dire Dawa is hovering dangerously close to the relegation zone in 12th place with 16 points from 12 matches. In stark contrast, Mebrat Hayl sits comfortably in 5th place with 21 points after 13 matches. The stakes couldn't be higher: for Dire Dawa, this match represents a chance to pull away from danger, while Mebrat Hayl seeks to solidify its position among the top contenders.
Recent form tells a tale of two teams on diverging paths. Dire Dawa's last five outings showcase a team struggling to find its rhythm-four draws and just one win. Notably, they managed a lackluster scoreless draw against Bahardar most recently and fell flat against Negelle Arsi with a heavy defeat. Their inconsistency is palpable; they have managed only four wins across their first twelve games. Mebrat Hayl's trajectory has been somewhat better despite being marred by a recent loss to Fasil Ketema and another goalless draw against Welwalo Adigrat Uni. They boast more draws than wins but remain solidly entrenched in mid-table stability.
What does this mean for their matchup? For Dire Dawa, reliance on home turf may provide a glimmer of hope as they seek to break through their attacking malaise. Statistically speaking, they've struggled to find the net consistently-scoring just six goals over their last five matches-and will need players like forward Hirut Gebremedhin, who netted during their victory against Ethiopia Bunna, to step up significantly. The defense has had moments of frailty as well; conceding three goals against Negelle exposes vulnerabilities that Mebrat Hayl can exploit.
On the flip side, Mebrat Hayl's recent tactical setup has leaned toward defensive solidity paired with opportunistic counter-attacks. Despite an offensive output lacking punch-they've scored only two goals in their last five matches-their ability to keep clean sheets makes them difficult opponents for any team struggling offensively like Dire Dawa. Expect key contributions from midfield dynamo Eyob Zemene, who orchestrated play effectively during their narrow victory over Suhul Shire.
Statistically analyzing each team's recent performances sheds light on underlying patterns. Dire Dawa has averaged less than one goal per match while posting weak expected goals (xG) figures-hovering around 0.8 xG per game recently-which underscores how critical it is for them to capitalize on every scoring opportunity they create. Conversely, Mebrat Hayl's xG stands at roughly 1.1 per match over the same period; though not sensational, it reflects greater efficiency in attack compared to their opponent's struggles.
Both teams face crucial tactical battles when they meet: Will Dire Dawa be able to break down Mebrat Hayl's organized defense? Can Mebrat capitalize on counterattacks led by speedsters out wide? The midfield tussle will likely dictate possession and flow; if Abraham Amare can impose his physicality against Mebrat's creative forces, it might just open doors for attacks down the flanks.
However, there's no denying that dire straits call for urgent measures-and there's pressure mounting squarely on Dire Dawa's shoulders as they look up at Mebrat from the bottom half of the table while desperately hoping for three points that would boost morale and stave off panic within their ranks.
So what happens when these contrasting trajectories collide? I predict a closely contested battle where both teams will feel anxious about conceding first due to conflicting needs-a desperate push for safety versus building upon a solid foundation within striking distance of Europe-bound aspirations. However, home advantage tilts slightly in favor of Dire Dawa.
I'm leaning towards a hard-fought draw here: expect something along the lines of 1-1 as each side grapples with its strengths and weaknesses in front of goal-a result that keeps both sets of fans nervously contemplating what's next while providing crucial drama fit for this pivotal phase in the season.