It is a fixture drenched in history, goals, and lopsided records—Borussia Dortmund hosting VfL Wolfsburg at the thunderous SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, where the “Yellow Wall” hasn’t only witnessed classic Bundesliga football, it has been the canvas upon which Dortmund have painted their superiority over their northern visitors. Yet as both teams converge this Sunday, the numbers point to an opening: Wolfsburg, quietly building, look poised to disrupt the pecking order.
When History Roars: Head-to-Head Realities
Borussia Dortmund’s dominance in this duel is undisputed. Across 43 Bundesliga meetings between the clubs, Dortmund have claimed 27 wins, surrendering just 9 to Wolfsburg. Factor in all competitions since 2004, and the streak extends to 29 Dortmund victories from 46 encounters, with only 10 Wolfsburg wins and 7 draws. The goal columns are stark: Dortmund, averaging 2.2 goals per match, have scored 102, dwarfing Wolfsburg’s 50 goals and 1.1 per game.
When they meet in Dortmund, the hosts tighten their grip—historically seizing more wins and doubling their rivals’ goal output. A detail to note: across recent five matches, Dortmund have racked up 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, while Wolfsburg lag with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats, suggesting form momentum also lies with Edin Terzic’s men.
Yet, football’s beauty lies not in what’s written, but in what’s possible.
Recent Fortunes: Momentum and Form
Borussia Dortmund enter this clash riding high at second place in the Bundesliga table, having notched 2 wins and a draw in their opening three games, amassing 8 goals scored and conceding just 3. Their last five matches across competitions netted them 17 goals, an indication of their offensive rhythm and attacking depth. Defensive solidity has also crept in, with 2 clean sheets—the best in the league so far.
VfL Wolfsburg, meanwhile, sit ninth, yet remain unbeaten with 1 win and 2 draws, bagging 7 goals and allowing 5. Their last five outings have delivered 13 goals scored, showing that Niko Kovač’s side isn’t lacking penetration in the final third. In recent fixtures, though, their defense has been less assured, conceding an average of 2 goals per match in the last five—an exploitable weakness by Dortmund’s strike force.
Tactical Blueprint: Predicted Lineups & Key Absences
The managers face selection headaches. Dortmund miss influential figures: Emre Can, Niklas Süle, Fabio Silva, and Julien Duranville, all sidelined by injury. Wolfsburg aren’t unscathed either; Denis Vavro, Rogério, Kevin Paredes, and Jesper Lindstrøm will be absent.
Dortmund’s likely XI (3-4-2-1):
- GK: Gregor Kobel
- DF: Julian Ryerson, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini
- MF: Yan Couto, Marcel Sabitzer, Jobe Bellingham, Daniel Svensson
- FW: Karim Adeyemi, Maximilian Beier, Serhou Guirassy
Wolfsburg’s projected XI (4-2-3-1):
- GK: Kamil Grabara
- DF: Kilian Fischer, Moritz Jenz, Konstantinos Koulierakis, Joakim Mæhle
- MF: Maximilian Arnold, Vini Souza
- AM: Andreas Skov Olsen, Lovro Majer, Patrick Wimmer
- FW: Mohamed Amoura
Stars in the Spotlight: Top Scorers and Creators
Borussia Dortmund
- Serhou Guirassy: The new spearhead, already making a statement, averaging 1.8 goals per match over the last five. Known for his directness, clinical edge, and aerial prowess, Guirassy is fast becoming Dortmund’s focal point.
- Maximilian Beier: Operating off Guirassy, Beier’s mobility and finishing have brought added unpredictability.
- Karim Adeyemi: The winger’s explosive pace and flair remain critical in unlocking compact defenses.
VfL Wolfsburg
- Mohamed Amoura: Wolfsburg’s answer up front, with the most shots on target per match (1.6). Not only is Amoura finding the net, but his movement is pulling defenders out of their comfort zones.
- Maximilian Arnold: The experienced midfielder leads in creativity (3 big chances created), acting as the fulcrum for transition and set pieces.
- Andreas Skov Olsen & Lovro Majer: Key wide players capable of stretching lines and supplying ammunition for Amoura.
Key Moments from Last Matches: How They Fared
Dortmund’s most recent outing was a showcase of attacking intent. Midfielders orchestrated the tempo, while Guirassy capitalized on service—his finishing separating the sides in tight moments. Defensive discipline, particularly from Kobel and Anton, kept the opposition at bay to secure all three points.
Wolfsburg’s last game saw them claw back from an early deficit; Amoura’s pressing forced chances, and Arnold’s range of passing unlocked stubborn defending. Yet their inability to close out the match defensively cost them, ending in a draw.
The Stakes: What This Means for the Bundesliga
For Dortmund, victory keeps pace with Bayern and underlines their Champions League aspirations. A slip, however, could see the chasing pack gather momentum and put pressure on Terzic’s regime. Wolfsburg, just four points behind, see this as a litmus test for their ambition—a chance to transform “respectable” into “contender,” and prove that their summer recruitment can yield tangible rewards.
Why This Game Could Buck the Trend
Here lies the “sizzle”: The numbers anchor Dortmund as favorites, but Wolfsburg have quietly built a side tailored to exploit Dortmund’s weaknesses. Kovač’s system, with Arnold dictating and Amoura attacking space, is set up to hurt a backline missing Süle’s leadership. Recent defensive lapses—though covered by clean sheets—suggest vulnerabilities remain, especially under sustained pressure.
Dortmund may dominate possession and shots, yet Wolfsburg’s counter-attacking prowess, coupled with an improving away record, means they are better prepared than in years past to pounce on any imprecision. A result here doesn’t just upset historical patterns; it plants Wolfsburg firmly in the conversation for European places.
What to Watch
- Can Guirassy extend his scoring run against a leaky Wolfsburg defense?
- Will Arnold’s creativity unlock Dortmund’s robust midfield?
- Does Adeyemi’s pace expose Wolfsburg’s defensive shape, or does Amoura torment Dortmund’s back three?
With history, form, and talent all converging, Sunday sets the stage not just for another Dortmund triumph, but for a genuine Bundesliga test—a blueprint for Wolfsburg’s evolution, and perhaps a changing of the guard. The odds still tip toward the hosts, but this is one storyline where the underdog’s growl might finally become a roar.
Everything is poised for a clash where both sides have everything to play for—and everything to prove.