The numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. Turkey U21 arrive at the Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion on Tuesday with momentum in their kit bag after dismantling Lithuania 2-0 last week, but here's what should worry them: Hungary are backed into a corner, and there's nothing more dangerous in football than a team with nothing left to lose.
Let's talk about where we are in this qualification campaign. Turkey sit third with eight points from eight matches—a record that screams inconsistency more than anything else. Two wins, two draws, four losses. That's the CV of a side that hasn't figured out who they are yet. The victory over Lithuania was professional, clinical even, with Başar Önal opening the scoring midway through the first half and Ayberk Karapo sealing it late. But Lithuania are the whipping boys of this group, and beating them tells you about as much as a pre-season friendly against a League Two side.
What tells you more? The mentality required to claw back results when everything's going against you. And that's exactly what Hungary demonstrated in their last outing, drawing 3-3 away at Ukraine after being behind. M. Tuboly grabbed the opener on 37 minutes, but it was the fight to find two more goals—on 60 and 80 minutes—that reveals something about their character. This is a team that's learning to scrap, to find something when the tank's supposedly empty.
The head-to-head history adds another layer to this narrative. When these sides last met back in October 2018, Turkey edged it 2-1. Over their three encounters, Turkey hold the advantage with two wins to Hungary's one. But youth football isn't about what happened seven years ago—it's about which group of players has evolved more in the last fortnight, which coaching staff has identified the weaknesses to exploit.
Turkey's recent form suggests they've found a formula. That draw with Croatia in September showed they can stand toe-to-toe with quality opposition, but it's the defensive solidity in their last match—a clean sheet against Lithuania—that might be their calling card. When you're a team struggling for consistency, you build from the back. Get that foundation right, and the rest follows.
But here's where it gets interesting from a tactical perspective. Hungary have scored in both their recent matches, averaging 1.5 goals per game, while Turkey are sitting at just one per match. That might not sound like much of a difference on paper, but it points to something crucial: Hungary are finding ways to hurt teams even when they're not dominating. They're dangerous in transition, they're finding pockets of space, and Tuboly has shown he can be the difference when it matters.
The pressure sits differently on these two sides. Turkey came into this campaign with expectations, the kind of burden that comes with having a football culture that demands success at every level. Eight points from eight games isn't what they envisioned. They need results, not just performances. Hungary, meanwhile, are playing with the freedom that comes from being counted out. After back-to-back draws, they've stopped the bleeding, found their feet, and now they're playing at home where the crowd can lift them when legs get heavy in the final twenty minutes.
The venue matters here more than people realize. The Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion might not be a cauldron like some of Europe's famous grounds, but it's theirs. The familiarity of surroundings, the knowledge of how the pitch plays, the support of a home crowd desperate for something to celebrate—these aren't trivial advantages. They're the margins that decide tight matches between evenly-matched sides.
Turkey will come with a plan, no question. They'll look to control possession, force Hungary back, use their technical quality to unpick a defense that's conceded goals in their last two outings. But football has a funny way of punishing teams that think they can turn up and collect three points by right. This Hungary side has shown they won't roll over. They've shown they can find goals even when trailing. They've shown resilience.
So here's where we land: Turkey are favorites on paper, but this match has all the hallmarks of a draw written all over it. Both teams will create chances, both will have moments of doubt, and ultimately, both will probably be satisfied with a point—even if they'd never admit it beforehand. Hungary keep their momentum building, Turkey avoid a damaging defeat on the road. It won't be pretty, but qualification campaigns rarely are.