Tensions are mounting as Pasaia KE prepares to face off against Leioa on January 17, 2026, in a must-win encounter for both teams at Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora. Pasaia, languishing in 13th place with just 18 points from 17 matches, is desperate for a turnaround after five consecutive losses, while Leioa sits more comfortably in 6th with 27 points but recently suffered a disappointing defeat. Both teams are feeling the heat-one battling relegation and the other striving for playoff contention-setting the stage for an electric clash.
For Pasaia KE, their recent form tells a grim story: they have managed only one draw and zero wins in their last five outings. Each match has seen them struggle defensively and fail to convert chances into goals. A string of narrow defeats-especially the latest against Eibar III where they lost by just one goal-reveals a side desperately searching for answers amid mounting pressure. The players are acutely aware that failure to secure points could deepen their descent into the relegation zone.
On the flip side, Leioa's performance has been marked by inconsistency. Despite sitting higher up in the table, their record over the last five matches includes two wins sandwiched between two losses and a draw. Their latest loss against Lagun Onak might rattle their confidence going into this crucial fixture. With several players underperforming at critical moments, Leioa must rally quickly to maintain any hopes of climbing further up the standings.
The statistics from both teams underscore stark contrasts that could dictate how this match unfolds. Pasaia's inability to score-averaging just under one goal per game-is compounded by their defensive frailties; they've conceded an alarming number of goals during this streak. On average, they allow opponents around 1.5 expected goals (xG) per match-a clear indication that defensive organization is lacking.
Leioa's tactical setup will look to exploit these weaknesses. They've been creating around 1.4 xG per game recently, which suggests they know how to get into dangerous areas but have faltered at finishing off opportunities-a pattern they cannot afford if they want to solidify their position in Group 4.
Key players will emerge as pivotal figures come kickoff. For Pasaia KE, all eyes will be on striker Omar Rodríguez, who scored his team's only goal in the recent draw against Zamudio; he needs to find that clinical edge if they hope to capitalize on any chances created. Meanwhile, Aitor García of Leioa is also crucial; he demonstrated his ability with two goals against Deusto just prior to their slump against Lagun Onak and is undoubtedly looking for redemption as he leads his team's offensive charge.
It's not merely about individuals though; tactical decisions will play a significant role here. Pasaia will likely need to adopt a more aggressive pressing style, pushing Leioa into making mistakes high up the pitch while ensuring that their defense remains compact against quick counterattacks-a staple of Leioa's play when they're flowing well.
Head-to-head history adds another layer of intrigue; Pasaia emerged victorious in their previous meeting back in September with a tight 1-0 win over Leioa. This psychological edge could serve as motivation for Pasaia but also fuel Leioa's fire as they seek revenge for what may be perceived as an embarrassing loss early in the season.
As we build toward kick-off, it becomes increasingly evident that this contest won't simply hinge on strategy or individual brilliance alone-it's about who can handle the intense mental pressure of such high stakes better. For many players on both sides, emotions will run high as every pass feels monumental and every miss like a catastrophe.
In what promises to be an intensely fought encounter, I firmly believe that Leioa possesses enough attacking flair combined with slight defensive robustness even amid current struggles to claim victory on enemy turf. Expect them to squeeze out an important win and leapfrog closer toward those coveted promotion spots while plunging Pasaia further into crisis mode-a classic example of pressure breathing down one's neck revealing true character under fire.
The final score? I predict Leioa edges it out with a narrow yet hard-fought 2-1 victory over Pasaia KE, serving notice that despite adversity, there's still fight left within those ranks-as ever more pivotal matches loom ahead in this tense season!