The Championship's great romantic narrative this season has been Birmingham City's fall from grace, but here's what nobody wants to admit: they might actually be stabilizing at exactly the wrong time for Preston North End, a side that's built their early-season success on the shakiest of foundations.
Paul Heckingbottom's men arrive at Deepdale sitting fourth in the table, and on paper, that looks like a club punching exactly where they belong. Look closer, though, and you'll see a team that's won just twice in their last five matches, a side that's drawn themselves into contention rather than bulldozed their way there. Four draws in nine matches tells you everything about Preston's season—they're competent enough not to lose, but lack the killer instinct to separate themselves from the pack. That 2-0 victory over Charlton feels like an outlier rather than a declaration of intent.
The underlying numbers betray a deeper concern. Just 0.8 goals per game over their last ten matches isn't promotion form—it's survival statistics dressed up in playoff clothing. Thierry Small has emerged as an unlikely creative force, scoring in consecutive matches before the Charlton win, but relying on your left-back for attacking impetus exposes a fundamental problem in the final third. Daniel Jebbison grabbed a goal against Charlton, but where's the consistency? Where's the 20-goal striker every promotion side needs?
Birmingham, meanwhile, arrive in Lancashire having arrested their slide at precisely the moment critics were sharpening their knives. That 3-0 humiliation at Coventry on September 27th looked like the beginning of the end, the kind of defeat that splinters dressing rooms and costs managers their jobs. Instead, Chris Davies has steadied the ship with back-to-back draws against Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham. The skeptics will point out they're still down in 16th, that they've managed just three wins all season, but there's something happening at St. Andrew's that the table doesn't capture.
The addition of Patrick Roberts and Demarai Gray represents exactly the kind of Championship experience that money alone can't guarantee. Roberts' equalizer at Wrexham and Gray's dramatic 90th-minute leveler against Sheffield Wednesday aren't just statistics—they're the fingerprints of players who've competed at the highest level, who understand how to extract points when the talent isn't flowing. Jay Stansfield, for all the pressure accompanying his record-breaking loan move, is starting to show why Birmingham were so desperate to secure his services, even if the goals are still arriving in a trickle rather than a flood.
The tactical chess match will center on Preston's defensive structure versus Birmingham's newly discovered resilience. Heckingbottom has built his reputation on organizational solidity, and with Jordan Storey emerging as an unlikely goal threat from set pieces—his 88th-minute equalizer against Middlesbrough salvaged a point—Preston will look to frustrate Birmingham's attacking talents. But here's the problem: when you're conceding two goals against Hull City and needing last-gasp heroics to draw with mid-table opposition, your defensive foundations aren't as solid as you'd like to believe.
Birmingham's attacking quartet of Roberts, Gray, Stansfield, and Lyndon Dykes on paper should overwhelm most Championship defenses. The issue has been consistency, that maddening inability to score more than once in regulation across multiple matches. But that Sheffield Wednesday performance, coming back from behind twice to salvage a point, suggested something's clicking. Gray's willingness to play the savior in the 90th minute against Wednesday hints at a team starting to believe in their own ability to affect results.
Preston will fancy this fixture because Deepdale has historically been their fortress, because the standings say they're the better side, because Birmingham still carry the stench of chaos about them. But football isn't played on paper or settled by league position in early October. The Lilywhites are a team built on solid defensive principles and occasional moments of brilliance. Birmingham are a club in transition, yes, but one with the individual quality to punish sides that lack cutting edge.
The 0-0 stalemate with Bristol City three matches ago tells you everything about what Preston become when they face opponents who match their organizational discipline. Birmingham might only average half a goal per game over their last ten, but they've found two different players willing to score in the 90th minute in their last three matches. That's not desperation—that's character.
Preston's early-season overachievement is about to hit the wall of harsh reality, and Birmingham, despite their lowly position, are exactly the kind of side with the quality to expose the cracks in North End's foundations. The draw specialist versus the team learning how to salvage points late. One of these sides is building toward something sustainable. The other is desperately hoping their solid start doesn't evaporate before Christmas.
Smart money says Preston's luck runs out at home, and Birmingham finally convert their late-game resilience into three points that could signal the beginning of their climb up the table.