They're back. Just one month removed from carving up Moldova 3-2 in what turned into a goals festival nobody expected, Slovakia's young lions return home to Košice with something resembling swagger—and the visitor's bus pulling into town carries the same Moldova side that learned some painful lessons in September but hasn't quite figured out how to stop the bleeding.
The arithmetic tells you everything about where we are. Slovakia sits second in the group with 15 points from eight matches, a respectable 5-3 record that speaks to a team learning to win while occasionally getting caught with its hand in the cookie jar. Moldova? They're collecting frequent flyer miles and regrets, three straight defeats that include that four-goal drubbing by England on Thursday that looked less like a football match and more like a training ground scrimmage where nobody told Moldova they were supposed to show up.
But here's where it gets interesting—and stop me if you've heard this before—revenge narratives don't always follow the script. Moldova walked into that September meeting at home and pushed Slovakia to the brink, even grabbed a 2-1 lead before the wheels came off. That wasn't an accident. That was a team with enough quality to make things uncomfortable, even if they couldn't sustain it for ninety minutes.
Fast forward to last Thursday's 2-2 draw in Dublin, and Slovakia showed you both sides of their personality in the same match. Nino Marcelli scored on the cusp of halftime—a player who's becoming the kind of name that makes opposing coaches circle the whiteboard a few extra times—and for stretches they looked every bit the side that should be pushing for automatic qualification. Then they let Ireland back into it. That's been the pattern: brilliant in bursts, vulnerable in stretches, never quite putting together the complete performance that announces you're ready for the main stage.
Moldova arrives having shipped seven goals in their last two outings while scoring exactly once. The England match revealed everything about their ceiling and their floor. They managed 24 percent possession—not a typo—and watched their defense crumble like day-old bread. Before that, they went to Ireland and fell 2-1 in a match where Mihai Lupan's goal felt more like a consolation prize than a genuine threat. The trend line isn't trending anywhere good.
Here's the thing though: Slovakia's home form at Košická futbalová aréna creates its own gravity. They've been averaging north of 1.3 goals per match in their recent run, and with Adam Griger finding the net against Andorra and the midfield continuing to create chances, this feels like a setup for another offensive showcase. Moldova's defensive structure—generously described as "porous" after allowing three in Slovakia, two in Ireland, and four against England—suggests they haven't cracked the code on keeping the ball out of their net when it matters.
The tactical battle centers on Slovakia's ability to exploit transition moments. They're at their best when they win the ball high and attack before defenses can set. Moldova's tendency to lose possession in dangerous areas—a habit England exploited mercilessly—means Slovakia won't need to manufacture chances so much as wait for Moldova to gift-wrap them. If Marcelli and his attacking partners maintain their recent sharpness, Moldova's back line will spend long stretches chasing shadows.
Moldova's only hope lives in the memory of that September match, when they proved they could score against this Slovakia side. If they can find an early goal—admittedly a big if given their scoring drought—they might force Slovakia into the kind of uncomfortable situation that exposed them against Ireland. But asking a team that's scored three goals across five matches to suddenly rediscover its finishing boots against a motivated home side feels like wishful thinking dressed up as strategy.
The table doesn't lie. Slovakia's 15 points represent a team that's figured out how to navigate the qualification gauntlet, even if they occasionally stumble. Moldova's position reflects a side still searching for answers to questions that keep getting harder. The last meeting promised fireworks and delivered. This one promises to be more workmanlike, a home side taking care of business against an opponent that's shown up repeatedly without bringing the tools necessary to compete.
Slovakia gets the job done. Not pretty, not perfect, but convincing enough to keep their qualification hopes alive while Moldova heads back east wondering when the tide turns. Sometimes the preview writes itself. This is one of those times.