There's a dangerous narrative floating around Group D, and it needs to be called out before Monday night's action in Kraków. People want to look at Ukraine's dramatic 5-3 victory over Iceland on Friday and assume this Azerbaijan match is a formality, a guaranteed three points for a team desperately chasing that playoff spot. Sources tell me that's exactly the kind of thinking that gets you exposed in World Cup qualifying.
Let me paint the real picture here: just one month ago in Baku, these same two teams walked off the pitch with a 1-1 draw, and Ukraine was fortunate to escape with even that single point. The Ukrainians dominated possession, created the better chances, and should have won comfortably—yet they didn't. That wasn't a fluke. Azerbaijan knows how to frustrate opponents, how to collapse into that compact 5-4-1 and suffocate the life out of attacking sequences. When you're playing on neutral ground, as Ukraine must do in Poland, those tactical advantages matter even more.
The concerning piece for Sergiy Rebrov's squad goes beyond tactics. Georgiy Sudakov, arguably their most creative midfielder and a player who's been instrumental in Benfica's success, limped off after just 39 minutes against Iceland with what appears to be more than a minor knock. Insiders indicate he's doubtful for Monday's fixture, which means Nazar Voloshyn steps into a massive void. The drop-off from Sudakov to Voloshyn isn't just about skill—it's about experience in these pressure moments, the ability to unlock a packed defense when nothing else is working.
Now, let me address the elephant in the room: that wild 5-3 result in Reykjavik wasn't the dominant performance the scoreline suggests. Ukraine blew a 3-1 lead and looked completely lost defensively until two late goals bailed them out. They recorded just 38% possession and needed Ruslan Malinovskyi to score twice just to maintain control. That's not championship football. That's surviving by the skin of your teeth when your opponents hand you opportunities through poor defending.
Azerbaijan, meanwhile, comes into this match with absolutely nothing to lose. They're bottom of the group with just one point, sitting at 1-9 on goal differential. The 3-0 loss to France was expected, professional, and—here's what matters—disciplined. Zero shots on goal doesn't sound impressive until you realize they held France to just three against a defense that's conceded nine in three matches. Aykhan Abbasov has this team organized, compact, and committed to making life miserable for opponents.
The tactical battle centers on one critical question: can Ukraine break down a defense that's going to sit deep, clog passing lanes, and force everything wide? With Viktor Tsigankov providing the creative spark from the flanks and Oleksii Hutsuliak leading the line, the Blue and Yellow have weapons. But against Iceland, they needed six shots on target to generate five goals—inefficiency that suggests they're creating chances through volume rather than quality. When Azerbaijan sits in that low block with all eleven players behind the ball, volume won't be enough.
The Asian handicap market has Ukraine at -1.75, which tells you everything about how sharps are viewing this match. They're not convinced Ukraine wins by two or more. The prediction models favor 3-0, but those same models didn't account for the 1-1 draw in Baku or the defensive chaos in Reykjavik. Ukraine averages just 47.6% possession in competitive matches and concedes 1.6 goals per game—hardly the profile of a dominant side.
What everyone seems to forget is that Ukraine has won just six of their last sixteen "home" fixtures. Playing in neutral venues strips away whatever atmosphere advantage they might have, and it levels the psychological playing field. Azerbaijan showed in that first meeting that they can absorb pressure, stay disciplined, and capitalize on even the smallest defensive lapses.
Here's what keeps me up at night if I'm Sergiy Rebrov: you're one point clear of Iceland for that crucial second place, you've got France and a tougher fixture on Match Day 8 still to come, and you're missing potentially your best midfielder against a team that's already proven they can frustrate you for 90 minutes. The margin for error is razor-thin, and Ukraine's defensive vulnerabilities—those same issues that nearly cost them in Iceland—remain unresolved.
The smart money says Ukraine grinds out a narrow victory, something like 2-0 if everything breaks right. But I've been around this game long enough to know that "should win" and "will win" are separated by ninety minutes of execution, and right now, Ukraine looks like a team surviving rather than thriving. Azerbaijan might not have the firepower to win this match, but they absolutely have the organization to keep it uncomfortable, keep it tight, and make Ukraine earn every single inch of that playoff position they're so desperately chasing.